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Climate Change in 2025: Key Points

Climate change is expected to worsen in 2025, with severe impacts on global resources, biodiversity, and human societies. Here are the key points from the sources:

1. Resource Scarcity and Conflict:

– The National Intelligence Council’s “Global Trends 2025” report highlights that climate change will exacerbate the scarcity of water resources, leading to increased competition and potential for interstate violence over shared resources[1].

– This scarcity is particularly pronounced in developing countries where agriculture consumes over 70% of the world’s water, leading to unrest and migration[1].

2. Biodiversity and Extinctions:

– Warming temperatures of 1.5°C to 2°C will cause most terrestrial species ranges to shrink dramatically, affecting species conservation and increasing the risk of global extinctions[4].

– There has been a 68% average decline in the population sizes of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, and fish between 1970 and 2016, according to the WWF’s Living Planet Report 2020[4].

3. Extreme Weather and Sea Levels:

– The ocean has absorbed much of the increased heat, with the top 100 meters of ocean warming more than 0.6 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969[4].

– Global sea levels have risen by roughly 8 inches in the past century, with the rate of increase nearly doubling over the past two decades[4].

4. Economic and Social Impacts:

– Climate change could force up to 216 million people to move within their countries by 2050, according to the World Bank’s 2021 Groundswell report[4].

– The difference between necessary carbon dioxide reduction and current trends (the emissions gap) is estimated at 12-15 gigatons of CO2-equivalent for the 2°C goal and 29-32 Gt CO2e for the 1.5°C goal[4].

5. Mitigation Efforts:

– Despite noble efforts, plastic production and use are forecast to double over the next 20 years and quadruple by the early 2050s, releasing greenhouse gases at every stage of its lifecycle[4].

– To limit global warming to below 2°C, the world needs to decrease fossil fuel production by around 6% between 2020-30, but countries are instead projecting an average annual increase of 2%[4].

Conclusion

Climate change in 2025 will be characterized by severe impacts on global resources, biodiversity, and human societies. The need for urgent mitigation efforts is underscored by the potential for increased conflict over resources, significant biodiversity loss, and substantial economic and social costs. While some regions may see greater temperature increases, recognizing these impacts will improve countries’ preparedness and acclimate the public to the reality of major tradeoffs in the future regarding energy and resource use[1].